Assessment of Fire risks in Urban agglomerations of Administrative and Economic Zones of Irkutsk Region

Currently, technosphere fires pose a significant threat to the life and health of the population, as well as to the safety of buildings and facilities for various purposes in the Irkutsk Region. The fire situation in urban agglomerations is of particular concern. This paper examines the consequences of technosphere fires in urban agglomerations within the administrative and economic zones (AEZ) of the Irkutsk Region. Using mathematical and social statistics methods, the study characterizes the population size and the number of technosphere facilities in urban agglomerations of the region’s AEZs from 2019 to 2024. Based on an analysis of the socio-economic consequences of fires, a reconstruction of the spatiotemporal patterns of fire impacts in urban agglomerations was conducted. Considering existing methodological approaches and fire-related socio-economic losses, the article presents calculated values of integral fire risks for urban agglomerations in the AEZs of the Irkutsk Region, including fire occurrence risk, direct economic damage risk, risks of death and injury, and the risk of building destruction. Using fire incident data as indicators of fire risks, it can be concluded that the current fire safety management system in the urban agglomerations of the Irkutsk Region lacks sufficient organizational and managerial development to effectively reduce fire risks.