The spatiotemporally varying relationship between LRT development and gentrification: Evidence from a mid-sized urban area in Canada

Urban rapid transit systems, such as light rail transit (LRT), may be associated with gentrification. Previous quantitative studies have adopted various analytical methods and reported mixed findings. However, they have often failed to differentiate gentrification from other forms of neighborhood change or assumed a homogeneous transit-gentrification relationship across space and time. This study argues that the relationship between transit and neighborhood change can vary across different zones and time periods within the urban area served by a transit line. A Bayesian modeling approach was employed to examine the spatiotemporally varying association between distance to LRT and neighborhood change from the planning to opening stages of the LRT line in Kitchener-Waterloo, a mid-sized urban area in Canada. Income improvement associated with LRT predominantly occurred in the opening stage of the transit line, while dwelling value growth related to LRT mainly occurred in the planning and construction stages. Neighborhoods showing significant associations between LRT and increases in income or dwelling value were found around central business district stations and near the northern and southern terminals. Some of these changes might be categorized as LRT-related gentrification. The research framework and advanced modeling approach presented in this study, as well as the novel concept of analyzing the relationship between transit and neighborhood change as a spatiotemporally variable phenomenon are valuable for transportation and gentrification research.