Financial sustainability thresholds in professional tennis: A bottom-up analysis of break-even ranking

Even if professional tennis is a globally celebrated sport, the financial viability remains a significant challenge for most players outside the top ranks. This study investigates the ranking threshold at which players achieve financial break-even—where prize money offsets the substantial costs of competing professionally. Following a triangulation design, the study combines a bottom-up cohort analysis of the Top 100 junior players from 2008 with qualitative expert interviews to examine career trajectories, rankings, and economic outcomes, and to validate key cost and break-even assumptions. The findings indicate that a ranking region around ATP/WTA 150 represents an accounting break-even corridor under benchmark cost assumptions, a range that is also supported by expert assessments, with only 32–34% of former top juniors achieving a positive financial balance by career end. Additionally, male players tend to sustain longer professional careers than females, potentially reflecting higher earning opportunities on the ATP Tour outside Grand Slam events. The results contribute to the literature on sports economics and offer relevant insights for athletes, governing bodies, and sponsors seeking to promote a more financially sustainable professional tennis system.