Features of statistical relationships between interannual changes in fire hazard according to weather conditions in the uluses of Yakutia with variations in the indicators of fire hazard of its forests in previous years

Forecasts of fire hazard changes based on weather conditions for various uluses (districts) of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) in various months of the coming year are essential for planning and managing the activities of the relevant firefighting units. Therefore, improving the methodology for their development is a pressing issue for emergency safety. It is known that one of the factors affecting fire hazard is variations in average monthly air temperatures in the surface layer of the atmosphere, which affect the rate of moisture evaporation from combustible materials. Previously, A.V. Kholoptsev, R.G. Shubkin, and N.Yu. Proskova established that in May and June, significant factors in interannual changes in surface temperatures in areas of Siberia (including Yakutia) are variations in forest fire rates in Yakutia in the previous year. The authors hypothesize that, in the current period, the same factors, for certain months, have a significant and consistent impact on changes in average monthly surface air temperatures over certain regions of Yakutia, and therefore on forest fire hazard. The aim of this study is to identify the Yakutian districts for which this hypothesis holds true in certain months. It was established that the relationships between time series reflecting interannual changes in average monthly air temperatures in the surface layer of the atmosphere over the study areas, as well as forest fire incidence indicators in Yakutia, which precede them by one year, are significant for many of its uluses (districts) only in May, June, and July. For most of these districts, the identified relationships for the period 2011-2023 are robust to time shifts, as well as changes in the duration of the time periods for which their significance was assessed. The results confirm the validity of existing concepts regarding the relationships between the processes under study. Their novelty lies in the identification of districts (uluses) of Yakutia for which the proposed hypothesis is valid. The hypothesis has been confirmed. Taking into account year-to-year changes in forest fire risk in Yakutia in previous years when forecasting the fire danger for the coming year based on weather conditions in the identified districts for May-July is useful when planning the activities of the relevant firefighting units. The proposed approach can be recommended for implementation in the forest fire monitoring and prevention system for regional authorities.