National Context and STEM Career Expectations: Social Comparison and Gender Differences Across 72 Economies

ABSTRACT Adolescents’ career expectations play a pivotal role in shaping identity and future opportunities, yet little is known about how national‐level comparisons influence these expectations. Drawing on social comparison theory, this study examines how relative standing in science achievement, socioeconomic status (SES), and math self‐efficacy is related to expectations for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) careers. Using PISA 2022 data from over 560,000 students across 72 economies, multilevel generalized linear models revealed more assimilation effects at the school level and more contrast effects at the country level, with distinct gendered and domain‐specific patterns. Girls’ STEM expectations were more strongly associated with academic comparisons, while boys’ expectations were more closely related to SES. Within STEM, information and communications technology careers required broad comparative advantages, whereas science, engineering, and health careers showed mixed gender patterns. Findings highlight that adolescents calibrate career expectations not only against local peers but also against national standards, underscoring the need for career guidance and education policies to reduce SES barriers and gender inequities in STEM.