System Dynamics-Based Policy Scenario Evaluation for Sustainable Municipal Solid Waste Management in Ambon City, Indonesia

Abstract : Unmanaged waste and heavy reliance on landfill disposal highlight the urgent need for sustainable municipal solid waste management planning in Ambon City. This study developed a system dynamics model to evaluate policy scenarios for increasing managed waste and reducing landfilled waste. Using Powersim Studio 10, the model projected waste generation and waste management performance from 2026 to 2035 to evaluate the achievement of the 100% managed waste target by 2029 and the post-target effects of policy interventions on system performance. The model was tested through structure verification and behavior reproduction testing. The simulation results indicate that the business-as-usual scenario fails to meet the 2029 target due to limited upstream reduce, reuse, and recycle capacity and continued reliance on the conventional collect–transport–dispose approach. In contrast, the integrated policy scenario provides the most effective policy direction. Achieving a 30% source- and community-based reduce, reuse, and recycle (3R) target requires management capacity to increase by 38.43% annually. This upstream intervention reduces downstream handling burdens by lowering the required annual increase in collection and transportation capacity from 8.94% to 5.50%. Furthermore, developing an integrated waste processing facility (abbreviated in Indonesian as TPST) before landfill disposal, with a capacity of 74 tons/day, substantially reduces landfilled waste. The integrated scenario achieves the 100% managed waste target earlier, in 2028, maintains this level through 2034, and produces the lowest landfilled waste among all scenarios through 2035. The proposed dynamic model provides a decision-support framework for local government in formulating more effective and sustainable municipal solid waste management strategies.