Jumping to Conclusions in First‐Episode Psychosis and Bipolar Disorder

AIM: Jumping to conclusions (JTC) bias, which is frequently observed in psychosis, is the tendency to make decisions based on inadequate information. This study explored JTC bias in individuals with first-episode bipolar disorder (FEBD, n = 52), first-episode psychosis (FEP, n = 61) and healthy controls (HCs, n = 38). METHOD: JTC bias was assessed using the Bead Task, in which participants were asked to draw as many beads as they wanted and make conclusions about their source. RESULT: The results showed that both the FEBD and FEP groups exhibited a significantly longer response time and higher tendency to make decisions after drawing a single bead compared to HCs, indicating a subtle tendency towards hastier decision-making in these patient groups. No significant correlations were found between JTC bias and clinical measures. DISCUSSION: This study highlights that JTC bias is present in both FEP and FEBD, pointing to potential vulnerabilities in decision-making early in these disorders. These findings highlight the need for further research to determine whether addressing reasoning biases could ultimately benefit decision-making processes in these populations.