A Novel Integrated Approach for Spatial Analysis of the Coupling Relationship and Its Driving Mechanisms of the Water–Energy–Food–Ecology–Land Nexus in the Yellow River Basin of China

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) region, a pivotal ecological and economic hub in China, relies on water, energy, food, ecology, and land for its sustainable development. Notably, despite abundant research on the coupling relationship of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus, ecological and land factors remain absent from existing unified analytical frameworks. This study proposed a novel integrated approach to evaluate the coupling coordination characteristics of the water–energy–food–ecology–land (WEFEL) nexus in the YRB from 2010 to 2023. The evaluation index system was then optimised by combining amalgamated principal component analysis, R-cluster analysis, the Pearson correlation coefficient, and the coefficient of variation. Additionally, the information entropy–spatiotemporal dynamic entropy method was used to determine indicator weights, considering spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal interaction dimensions. An improved dynamic coupling coordination model, combined with kernel density estimation, an obstacle degree model, and the XGBoost-SHAP algorithm, was applied to analyse coupling coordination, evolution patterns, constraint factors, and driving mechanisms. The key findings are as follows: (1) The overall WEFEL coupling coordination of the Yellow River Basin steadily rose from 0.3400 in 2010 to 0.4223 in 2023, remaining predominantly at the transitional development stage. (2) Water and food systems are the core constraints, with combined constraint levels exceeding 56% annually; ecological system constraints show a persistent upward trend. (3) Per capita regional GDP, fiscal expenditure ratio, and industrial upgrading are the primary drivers, collectively accounting for over 62% of the cumulative contribution, with the synergistic interaction between economic development and fiscal regulation being the most pronounced.