Quantitative understanding of PDF fits and their uncertainties

Abstract Parton distribution functions (PDFs) play a central role in describing experimental data at colliders and provide insight into the structure of nucleons. As the LHC enters an era of high-precision measurements, a robust PDF determination with a reliable uncertainty quantification has become mandatory in order to match the experimental precision. The NNPDF collaboration has pioneered the use of machine learning (ML) techniques for PDF determinations, using neural networks (NNs) to parametrise the unknown PDFs in a flexible and unbiased way. The NNs are then trained on experimental data by means of stochastic gradient descent algorithms. The statistical robustness of the results is validated by extensive closure tests using synthetic data. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework based on the neural tangent kernel (NTK) to analyse the training dynamics of neural networks. This approach allows us to derive, under precise assumptions, an analytical description of the neural network evolution during training, enabling a quantitative understanding of the training process. Having an analytical handle on the training dynamics allows us to clarify the role of the NN architecture and the impact of the experimental data in a transparent way. Similarly, we are able to describe the evolution of the covariance of the NN output during training, providing a quantitative description of how uncertainties are propagated from the data to the fitted function. Interestingly, the methodology developed in this work can be used to understand the minimization of a loss function for any kind of parametrization, thereby providing a unified framework to compare different PDF determinations, like, e.g., fits based on a particular functional form. While our results are not a substitute for PDF fitting, they do provide a powerful diagnostic tool to assess the robustness of current fitting methodologies. Beyond its relevance for particle physics phenomenology, our analysis of PDF determinations provides a testbed to apply theoretical ideas about the learning process developed in the ML community. As seen in applications from other domains, we find that our results deviate from the simple picture of the lazy training regime discussed in the ML literature.