Climate Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in Selected Cyclone-Prone Communities of Southern Africa: A Comparative Gendered Analysis of Mozambique, Malawi, and Madagascar

This study comparatively assesses household climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity across cyclone-prone communities in Mozambique, Malawi, and Madagascar through a gendered lens. Drawing on 2618 primary household surveys, a Household Vulnerability Index (HVI) was constructed via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) within the IPCC exposure–sensitivity–adaptive capacity framework, with group differences evaluated using ANOVA and Bonferroni post hoc tests. The analysis tests three core hypotheses: cross-country differences in vulnerability (H1), gender as a determinant of vulnerability category membership (H2), and adaptive capacity as the primary driver of cross-country divergence (H3). Findings indicate that Mozambique’s study sites exhibit the highest vulnerability among the three countries, driven by compounding exposure, elevated sensitivity, and constrained adaptive capacity. Conversely, Malawi’s study sites present the lowest overall vulnerability as superior adaptive capacity offsets household vulnerability. Madagascar’s study sites occupy an intermediate position, with households concentrated in moderate vulnerability due to structural sensitivity and limited adaptive capacity. Although mean HVI scores are statistically indistinguishable across gender groups (F < 0.01; p = 0.980), category distributions reveal a gendered division of risk: male-headed households face higher direct occupational exposure, whereas female-headed households suffer structural deficits in adaptive capacity. These findings demonstrate that adaptive capacity, rather than physical exposure, is the primary driver of cross-country divergence in household vulnerability, and that gender restructures risk pathways rather than altering aggregate vulnerability levels. Targeted institutional investments in extension services, anticipatory action frameworks, and gender-responsive training are therefore critical pathways to vulnerability reduction in comparable low-income settings.