Planting for food and jobs and food inflation in Ghana: evidence from a multivariate interrupted time-series analysis

Purpose Ghana has experienced persistent food inflation, which undermines food security and household welfare. To address rising food costs, the government launched the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) programme in 2017, with implementation continuing beyond its initial 2017–2020 phase. This study examines whether the PFJ programme coincided with a statistically significant change in food inflation in Ghana, and whether any such change was sustained over time. Design/methodology/approach The study employs a multivariate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) using monthly data from January 2006 to April 2023. The model controls for four confounding variables: the Ghana cedi/USD exchange rate, the FAO Global Food Price Index, a monthly rainfall index and non-food CPI. Both Newey–West and Prais–Winsten estimators are used to ensure robustness to autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. Findings After controlling for macroeconomic and climatic confounders, the PFJ programme was associated with an immediate, statistically significant reduction in food inflation. However, food inflation trended upward in subsequent months, indicating that the initial impact was not sustained. This long-run reversal is consistent with the programme's structural limitations, including budget shortfalls, weak marketing support and the compounding effects of external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and global energy price increases in 2021–2022. Research limitations/implications The findings suggest that while input subsidy programmes may reduce food inflation in the short term, sustaining these gains requires greater attention to the programme's implementation efficiency and resilience to macroeconomic shocks. Originality/value This study employs a multivariate ITSA framework to assess the impact of the PFJ programme on food inflation, while controlling for confounders overlooked in prior analyses. It provides one of the first empirical assessments of the PFJ's macro-level impact on food price dynamics. It offers evidence-based insights for agricultural policy design in Ghana and comparable developing economies.