The global nitrogenous fertilizer market: a trade-based analysis of market attractiveness and trade vulnerability

The global food demand is projected to increase by nearly 70% by 2050, driven by rapid population growth and urbanization, posing significant challenges for sustainable agricultural production and food security. Nitrogenous fertilizers play a critical role in enhancing crop yields and maintaining agricultural productivity, making them one of the most strategically important commodities in international trade. Therefore, trade-oriented analyses of fertilizer markets represent a vital dimension of sustainability research. This research develops a trade-data-driven framework to evaluate the global nitrogenous fertilizer market across major importing countries in terms of market attractiveness and trade vulnerability. The proposed model integrates indicators of market size (average import value and quantity), growth dynamics (import growth), and structural trade risks (supplier concentration, top supplier dependence, and import volatility) within a two-dimensional evaluation matrix. The findings reveal substantial heterogeneity among importing countries. While some large markets exhibit high attractiveness accompanied by elevated vulnerability due to concentrated supplier structures, others combine strong demand conditions with more diversified and resilient trade networks. The proposed framework provides a comprehensive tool for international market evaluation, supporting strategic market selection, agricultural trade policy formulation, and the development of more resilient and sustainable fertilizer supply systems.