Abrupt permafrost thaw drives exceptional carbon release across the Tibetan Plateau
Abstract Climate warming is accelerating abrupt permafrost thaw, driving substantial carbon emissions. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) represent the most severe instance of abrupt permafrost thaw, yet their carbon emissions remain poorly quantified due to limited observations. Here, by synthesizing 4728 RTS incidents and 1862 in-situ CO 2 and CH 4 measurements from RTS-affected zones across the Tibetan Plateau, we estimate that the area of RTS susceptibility will expand by 17–19% by 2100 relative to 2022, driven primarily by precipitation changes. Compared to control areas, the ecosystem respiration rate in collapsed areas decreases by 14.4%, while CH 4 release rate increases by 20.0%. The combined CO 2 and CH 4 release associated with RTS expansion increased 1.1-fold between 2016 and 2022. Under the intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenario, carbon emissions from RTS-susceptible areas are projected to surge 2.7-fold by 2100. These findings highlight that abrupt thaw strengthens permafrost carbon-climate feedback in high-altitude regions, underscoring the urgent need for targeted permafrost protection strategies to achieve carbon neutrality goals.
Authors
- Zhuoxuan Xia (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2467-5526)
- Yuguo Wei
- Yuanhe Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5399-4606)
- Mei Mu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0921-4614)
- Lin Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9581-1337)
- Rongkun Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5479-3304)
- Lingcao Huang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3072-7334)
- Jinyue Song
- Xiaoqing Peng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1789-7809)
- Sonam Wangchuk (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0897-1402)
- Yongqi Ge (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0268-6168)
- Cuicui Mu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0630-9423)
- Hebin Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3690-6018)
- Chunling Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8981-3184)
- Yunjie Jia
- Xinlong Du
- Pengsi Lei
- Kun Li
Institutions
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (NP)
- Chinese University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Beijing Botanical Garden (CN)
- Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources (CN)
- Lanzhou University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-06-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74850-y
- Primary Topic
- Climate change and permafrost
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- National Key Research and Development Program of China