Municipal patterns of systemic depopulation and SNAI investment: a “dose-response” analysis of three Italian regions

Concerns about the negative impact of population decline, and especially the systemic depopulation of remote and marginalised areas, have become a central issue in contemporary policy debates. The National Strategy for Inner Areas (SNAI), established in 2014, represents the main Italian policy framework explicitly aimed at supporting territories affected by long-term demographic fragility. This study applies the Systemic Depopulation Areas Index (SyDAs) to municipalities in three Italian regions—Abruzzo, Basilicata, and Emilia-Romagna—over the period 1994–2023 to identify and characterise systemic depopulation processes. Municipal trajectories are examined both in terms of exit from systemic depopulation (SyDAs Exit) and reduction in its intensity (SyDAs Reduction), measured through differences in population trend slopes before and after the introduction of SNAI. These outcomes are then examined in relation to the degree of economic implementation of SNAI projects at the municipal level. The results indicate a general expansion or stabilization of systemic depopulation across the analysed regions, while only a small minority of municipalities display either an exit from the SyDAs condition or a measurable reduction in its intensity. Moreover, no statistically significant association emerges between higher levels of SNAI economic implementation and either SyDAs Exit or SyDAs Reduction. Taken together, these findings suggest that observed demographic trajectories do not display systematic differentiation across levels of policy exposure. This evidence highlights the analytical importance of moving beyond financial implementation alone and points to the need for refined territorial targeting, outcome-oriented monitoring, and sustained, context-sensitive support for local governance in place-based development strategies.