China’s one-child exemptions and the spousal age gap

Abstract This paper examines the impact of exemptions to China’s 1979 One-Child Policy on fertility and the spousal age gap. The exemptions, implemented at different times across provinces, created exogenous variation that we exploit using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design. Our analysis uses the 2010 China Family Panel Studies and focuses on couples with rural hukou status, who were most affected by these exemptions during the study period. We find that the exemptions led to a 32% increase in fertility, consistent with the policy’s pro-natalist intent. We also observe a 25% increase in the spousal age gap, likely driven by the increased demand for fertility following the policy change. These effects run counter to the broad international trend over this period, in which fertility rates have generally declined and spousal age gaps have narrowed. We additionally find suggestive evidence that the exemptions are associated with a more traditional household division of labor, with possible implications for the gender wage gap.