Digital intelligence and international relations: strategic mechanisms and global power dynamics

Purpose This article aims to examine how national digital intelligence capacity is translated into foreign-policy-relevant crisis governance through three mechanisms – crisis anticipation, policy coordination and external signalling. It addresses a research puzzle: Why Egypt and Saudi Arabia, two regional powers facing comparable digital interdependence, display divergent patterns of anticipatory crisis governance and external digital influence? Design/methodology/approach The article develops a mechanism-oriented conceptual framework that draws selectively on established international relations concepts related to strategic competition, institutional coordination and digital sovereignty. It applies a structured, focused comparison of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, drawing on cross-national indices (artificial intelligence (AI) readiness, GovTech maturity, cybersecurity capacity and global AI benchmarks) alongside publicly available national strategies and institutional arrangements as contextual indicators rather than as tools for hypothesis testing or causal inference. Findings Higher digital intelligence capacity is associated with stronger early-warning routines, tighter coordination and greater capacity to mobilise digital infrastructures for diplomatic signalling; outcomes vary with institutional centralisation and data-governance practices. Research limitations/implications The framework is theory-driven and exploratory. It relies on composite indices and author-generated profiles rather than on micro-level process tracing or longitudinal data, which limits the scope for strong causal inference. Future research could operationalise the proposed mechanisms in within-case and time-series designs. Practical implications The framework helps Global South policymakers identify where digital intelligence investments strengthen anticipatory crisis governance and where governance gaps erode strategic gains. Originality/value The article specifies digital intelligence capacity as an information retrieval-relevant capability bundle and traces mechanisms linking digital readiness to foreign-policy-relevant crisis governance in a Middle East comparison.