Volcanic eruptions caused weakening AMOC during the preindustrial past millennium
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of our climate system. However, the evolution history and the forcing mechanism of AMOC in the last millennial has remained uncertain. Here, combining available paleo AMOC-sensitive indicators with multiple climate models and paleo Data Assimilation, we show, for the first time, that the AMOC transport exhibits a slow declining trend into the Little Ice Age, with a reduction of about $$-0.7\,\pm 0.4{Sv}.$$ (~4%) from AD 850-1850. This weakening is mainly caused by explosive volcanic eruptions. After a rapid strengthening in the initial decade following a volcanic eruption, the AMOC tends to show a slow weakening of centennial timescale, driven by stored cooling in the deep Atlantic and its feedback on North Atlantic climate. A combined model-data study shows that volcanic eruptions caused the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by ~0.7 Sv. during the past millennium before industrial revolution.
Authors
- Mi Yan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4730-3781)
- Weiyi Sun (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9043-706X)
- Qin Wen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0858-3864)
- Michael Mann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3067-296X)
- Liang Ning (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5629-0914)
- Lili Lei (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4962-7843)
- Zhengyu Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4554-2666)
- Lingwei Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1818-6080)
- Jian Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5772-7065)
- Yuntao Bao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-0568-4708)
- Wenqing Hu
- H S Sun
- J Q Du
- Peng Gu
- Fangmiao Xing
- Yanmin Qin
- Kefan Chen
Institutions
- Guangxi University (CN)
- Nanjing Normal University (CN)
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (US)
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- Peking University (CN)
- Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (CN)
- Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (CN)
- Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application (CN)
- The Ohio State University (US)
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Nanjing University (CN)
- Xinjiang University (CN)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-06-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74873-5
- Primary Topic
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Met Office
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- National Key Research and Development Program of China