A Monte Carlo simulation for evaluating hypothetical mesothelioma risk in a person exposed to talcum powder

OBJECTIVE: Some of the varieties of talc were reported to contain a small fraction of elongate particles, including tremolite. The biological effects of tremolite were demonstrated in literature as dependent on the habit of particles (asbestiform vs. non-asbestiform). The objective of this paper is to utilize advanced methodologies of risk evaluation to determine if risk of mesothelioma could be elevated in persons utilizing talcum powder. METHODS: Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate potency factors, cumulative exposure, and mesothelioma risk for a hypothetical scenario. RESULTS: Excess risk of mesothelioma for the person would be estimated as 0.22 cases per 1,000,000 per lifetime, with 5th percentile of 0.003 and 95th percentile of 0.873. Upper bound of excess mesothelioma risk is lower than the U.S. EPA benchmark for the general population and also comprises only about 1.4% of the mesothelioma baseline level in unexposed people. The morphological habit of tremolite particles reported in talc was typical for non-asbestiform variety. CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative risk assessment can be used to evaluate possible health outcomes of airborne exposure to talcum powder.