Before first observed prison or jail contact: health and social strain trajectories in HILDA

Prison or jail contact is often observed after health and social circumstances have already begun to deteriorate, but the pre-contact period is usually treated as a methodological nuisance. Using 24 waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, this preprint describes health and social strain trajectories before and after first observed respondent prison or jail contact. Among 50,403 respondents in the HILDA responding-adult spine from 2001 to 2024, 630 ever reported prison or jail contact in the previous 12 months. We estimate unweighted event-time means for psychological distress, SF-36 health domains, self-rated health, smoking, employment, financial strain, loneliness, body mass index, and a six-domain cumulative observed strain index. The central finding is that first observed prison or jail contact in HILDA sits near the visible peak of a multi-domain health and social strain process, not its onset. Multi-domain strain is detectable in routine panel measures years before contact, with the strongest pre-contact deterioration in psychological distress, mental health, employment, smoking, financial strain, and loneliness. The paper is descriptive and does not estimate the causal effect of incarceration on health.