Timoshenko Flexocompression Beam Analogy Applied to the Calculation of Seismogenic Thickness and Cortical Rupture Prediction in the Sierra de Pie de Palo

This paper presents a deterministic geomechanical model to parameterize the spatial variabilityof seismogenic thickness (h) in basement thrust faults under flat-slab subduction regimes. We developa physico-mathematical analogy by transforming the elemental elastic approximation into avariable cross-section Timoshenko beam model subjected to tectonic flexocompression. The governingdifferential equations are solved numerically over a regularized mesh using interseismic strainrates derived from GPS data. The lower seismogenic boundary (zmax) is formulated by coupling theeffective stress tensor, deep dehydration-induced pore pressure, and rheological constitutive equations.The model is quantitatively calibrated and validated against hypocentral depths recorded byINPRES, and its integration into probabilistic seismic hazard assessment schemes is discussed