Increasing irrigation demand coincides with declining irrigation development potential under climate change

Climate change and socioeconomic development are increasing pressure on global food systems while intensifying agricultural water stress. Here, we develop a global framework integrating an irrigation requirement index and an irrigation development suitability index to assess irrigation demand, development potential, and grain yield gains from irrigation. Using observations from 2011–2020, ten climate models and three future climate scenarios were used to simulate water requirements and yields of five major crops for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Irrigation demand increased while irrigation development potential declined across most regions. By 2050, 25–29% of the global five-crop area is projected to experience high irrigation requirements, whereas less than 25% remains highly suitable for irrigation development. Irrigation could increase global grain production by 325–372 Mt and reduce up to 85.1% of the projected food gap. These findings highlight growing constraints on irrigation expansion while demonstrating its continued importance for food security. Rising irrigation demand and declining irrigation development potential constrain future food production, although irrigation could still bridge up to 85% of global food gaps, based on a global framework integrating irrigation demand and suitability indices, and climate model projections.