Multiscale Dynamic Mechanisms of Drought‐Flood Abrupt Alternation Events in the Yangtze River Basin

Abstract Drought‐flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events have become more frequent under global warming, posing increasing risks to society and ecosystems. Using the standardized weighted average precipitation index combined with run theory, we identify DFAA events across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from May to September during 1961–2022. A total of 1,097 DFAA events were detected, including 89 regional events. Both types of DFAA events feature rapid transitions of less than 4 days and show frequency and enhancing intensity, particularly after 2000. Regional events occur most frequently in the middle and lower reaches of the YRB. To investigate the underlying mechanisms of regional events, the canonical transfer framework based on the multi‐scale window transform was used. Intensified positive North Atlantic Oscillation and weakened midlatitude westerlies enhance Ural blocking (UB), whose peak occurs 2–4 days before DFAA onset and creates key precursor stages. Meanwhile, intraseasonal‐scale available potential energy associated with UB propagates downstream toward the YRB. This energy transfer enhances baroclinic instability and gradually establishes a baroclinic structure over the basin. During DFAA onset, the intensified baroclinic instability combines with the convergence of cold‐dry air from the north and warm moisture transported by the westward‐extended western Pacific subtropical high. This interaction triggers an abrupt shift from drought to heavy rainfall. This study clarifies how large‐scale circulation patterns coordinate across time scales to produce DFAA in the YRB. The identified early‐stage signals provide valuable guidance for improving the prediction of these high‐impact events.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Published
2026-06-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd046199
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

Funders

Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Multiscale Dynamic Mechanisms of Drought‐Flood Abrupt Alternation Events in the Yangtze River Basin

Zhiwei Zhu, Yingxiao Sun, Hongjia Lei, Qianrong Ma et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Climate variability and models
article

Multiscale Dynamic Mechanisms of Drought‐Flood Abrupt Alternation Events in the Yangtze River Basin

Zhiwei Zhu, Yingxiao Sun, Hongjia Lei, Qianrong Ma, Chunxuan Zhao, Hao Wu
article en

Abstract

Abstract Drought‐flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events have become more frequent under global warming, posing increasing risks to society and ecosystems. Using the standardized weighted average precipitation index combined with run theory, we identify DFAA events across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from May to September during 1961–2022. A total of 1,097 DFAA events were detected, including 89 regional events. Both types of DFAA events feature rapid transitions of less than 4 days and show frequency and enhancing intensity, particularly after 2000. Regional events occur most frequently in the middle and lower reaches of the YRB. To investigate the underlying mechanisms of regional events, the canonical transfer framework based on the multi‐scale window transform was used. Intensified positive North Atlantic Oscillation and weakened midlatitude westerlies enhance Ural blocking (UB), whose peak occurs 2–4 days before DFAA onset and creates key precursor stages. Meanwhile, intraseasonal‐scale available potential energy associated with UB propagates downstream toward the YRB. This energy transfer enhances baroclinic instability and gradually establishes a baroclinic structure over the basin. During DFAA onset, the intensified baroclinic instability combines with the convergence of cold‐dry air from the north and warm moisture transported by the westward‐extended western Pacific subtropical high. This interaction triggers an abrupt shift from drought to heavy rainfall. This study clarifies how large‐scale circulation patterns coordinate across time scales to produce DFAA in the YRB. The identified early‐stage signals provide valuable guidance for improving the prediction of these high‐impact events.

Journal of Geophysical Research AtmospheresVol. 131(13)
China Meteorological Administration (CN), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (CN), Fudan University (CN), Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (CN), Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (CN), Yangzhou University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Climate variability and models
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.