A stochastic framework for ruin probabilities under time-changed Brownian motion

This study investigates ruin probabilities in the insurance sector using a time-changed Brownian motion framework. By incorporating a normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) process, the model overcomes the limitations of traditional models with deterministic time evolution. The proposed approach introduces a stochastic time component governed by an inverse Gaussian process, allowing a more flexible and realistic assessment of ruin probabilities. We also extend the model by incorporating reinsurance mechanisms, offering a comprehensive view of risk allocation. The results highlight the model’s robustness and practical relevance in both insurance and reinsurance contexts, contributing to the literature on advanced risk processes.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communication in Statistics- Theory and Methods
Published
2026-06-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2026.2668471
Primary Topic
Probability and Risk Models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

A stochastic framework for ruin probabilities under time-changed Brownian motion

Başak Bulut Karageyi̇k, Tuğba Aktaş Aslan
Communication in Statistics- Theory and Methods
Probability and Risk Models
article

A stochastic framework for ruin probabilities under time-changed Brownian motion

Başak Bulut Karageyi̇k, Tuğba Aktaş Aslan
article en

Abstract

This study investigates ruin probabilities in the insurance sector using a time-changed Brownian motion framework. By incorporating a normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) process, the model overcomes the limitations of traditional models with deterministic time evolution. The proposed approach introduces a stochastic time component governed by an inverse Gaussian process, allowing a more flexible and realistic assessment of ruin probabilities. We also extend the model by incorporating reinsurance mechanisms, offering a comprehensive view of risk allocation. The results highlight the model’s robustness and practical relevance in both insurance and reinsurance contexts, contributing to the literature on advanced risk processes.

Communication in Statistics- Theory and Methods
Kırıkkale University (TR), Hacettepe University (TR)
Sustainable cities and communities
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Probability and Risk Models
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