China’s new quality productive forces in healthcare: spatial disparities, dynamic evolution, and convergence

BACKGROUND: The deep integration of breakthrough technological innovation and healthcare has given rise to new quality productive forces in healthcare, profoundly reshaping the spatial logic of medical resource allocation. However, existing studies lack an evaluation framework tailored to this emerging concept, and its spatiotemporal evolution and regional coordination remain insufficiently explored, hindering targeted policy-making for balanced healthcare development. METHODS: We measured the level of new quality productive forces in healthcare across 31 Chinese provinces during 2010-2023 using the CRITIC-entropy combined weighting method and TOPSIS method. Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density analysis were applied to explore its spatial differentiation and temporal evolution characteristics. σ convergence, absolute β and conditional β convergence models were adopted to clarify its convergence pattern. RESULTS: China's new quality productive forces in healthcare showed an "initial decline then sustained growth" trend, peaking in 2023. New quality medical laborers exhibited the strongest performance, while new quality medical objects of labor were the weakest. Spatially, the Eastern Region had the highest level in 2023 and the Western Region recorded the lowest level; regional gaps narrowed steadily. Inter-group disparities dominated overall disparities during 2011-2019, while transvariation was the main source in 2010 and post-2020. Absolute β and conditional β convergence were observed, but no σ convergence existed. CONCLUSION: China's new quality productive forces in healthcare have shown dynamic growth, yet they continue to face structural constraints characterized by persistently underdeveloped new quality medical objects of labor and narrowing yet non-negligible regional disparities. Our findings highlight the need for an integrated policy approach that involves implementing differentiated strategies aligned with the heterogeneous development levels and convergence characteristics of healthcare new quality productive forces across regions, while enhancing patient digital engagement and expanding the accessibility of high-quality online healthcare services.