Transition of the Relationship Between Low Carbon Development and Intensive Urban Land Use Under Rapid Urbanization: Evidence from the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration

Low-carbon development (LCD) and intensive urban land use (IULU) are critical objectives for sustainable urban development. Existing studies have usually evaluated LCD or IULU separately, whereas the dynamic relationship between carbon-transition capacity and land-use intensification under rapid urbanization remains insufficiently clarified. This gap limits the ability of policymakers to design spatially differentiated and synergistic actions for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study investigates the relationship between LCD and IULU and its transformation within the sustainable development framework, using the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (MRYRUA) in central China as a case study. Results indicate a strong positive correlation between LCD and IULU. Crucially, their coupling exhibited a distinct U-shape trajectory from 2005 to 2020; it decreased from 0.89 in 2005 to 0.73 in 2013 and then recovered to 0.84 in 2020, suggesting a relative weakening of the interaction followed by recoupling rather than complete decoupling. The identified U-shaped trajectory holds vital implications for other developing nations, suggesting that integrating low-carbon goals into spatial planning and land policies from the early stages of urbanization can pave the way for a faster transition to a green, intensive, and high-quality development model. Moreover, although both LCD and IULU exhibited positive trends, a widening gap was observed between provincial capitals and non-provincial cities. We, therefore, recommend integrating multi-stakeholder collaboration and implementing differentiated strategies to enhance the synergistic effects of LCD and IULU for cities at different phases of the LCD–IULU transition.