Atlantic multidecadal oscillation modulates the impact of precipitation extremes on crop yields in Africa

Climate variability driven by North Atlantic sea surface temperatures variability through the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is known to influence climate conditions in Africa. Yet, there is a need to understand whether AMO's interannual variability modulates the risks of elevated precipitation on agriculture yields in regional Africa. Here we investigate whether a positive or negative phase of the AMO modulates the risk of cereal, fruit, and vegetable yield during high precipitation events across African regions over the past six decades. Using region-specific annual yield data and climate indicators, we assess how AMO's decadal phases interact with precipitation and affect agricultural yield in North, East, West, and Southern Africa. To our knowledge this study is unique in finding that during a negative phase of the AMO (pre-1995), high precipitation levels significantly increased the likelihood of increased cereal yield in almost all regions of Africa, yet not during the positive phase of AMO (post-1995). A negative AMO exhibited more favorable growing conditions only for cereal, not fruit or vegetable yield. These findings highlight the importance of integrating oceanic climate variability into agricultural risk assessment and planning in possibly other low-income nations.