Economic and environmental impacts of sustainable wheat intensification: insights from the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains

Sustainable intensification is a promising way to improve agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. However, limited studies to date have focused on its impacts on productivity, profitability, and environmental outcomes. Using survey data from 1179 households in the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains of Nepal and an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model, we assess the impact of zero tillage (ZT) wheat on productivity, cost, profits, total energy use (TEU), and greenhouse gas emission intensity (GHGI). Under the assumption of the ESR model, we find that ZT wheat significantly increased productivity by 23% (610 kg/ha) and profitability by US$ 151 per hectare, while reducing TEU by 8% (1167 MJ/ha) and GHGI by 23% (115 kg CO2 equivalent/ton). However, these benefits are unevenly distributed: higher productivity and profitability gains are observed at the upper quantiles of these outcomes, whereas environmental improvements are more evident around the medium quantiles of TUE and GHGI. Our findings indicate that the adoption of ZT wheat depends primarily on farmers’ willingness to take risks and labour shortages. Given the findings, policy measures to promote conservation tillage are essential to mitigate the risks and promote wider adoption among smallholders in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia.