Underlying export characteristics and projected country positions in the agri-food trade: A global system analysis

The global agriculture and food trade plays a critical role in ensuring food security and economic stability. A country's agri-food export share is contingent upon various social, economic, and physical factors, and it defines its position within the global trade system. In this study, we propose a machine learning framework to systematically identify the most informative characteristics associated with export shares of countries and explore their projected positions within the agri-food trade. Our study focuses on 25 countries with varying export shares spanning from 1988 to 2022. The results show that the performance of logistics systems, population, reliability of government, and value of agricultural production have the greatest impact on shaping the export share of a country. Further, by 2035, the United States, the Netherlands, Brazil, Germany, China, and Australia are projected to be the leading exporters of global agriculture and food trade, following current trends closely. Our findings can offer insights to policymakers and researchers, enabling more strategic decision-making.