Impact of wave power integration and sustainable e-fuel, e-chemical, and e-materials exports on Chile’s energy transition

This study presents the first application of hierarchical energy system modelling in a three-level framework to evaluate the role of wave power and renewable electricity-based product export in Chile’s transition to a defossilised energy-industry system. While previous research has indicated that solar photovoltaics and onshore wind power may lead Chile’s energy transition, the country also has abundant wave power resources. Thus, the potential for wave power to enhance the supply complementarity of onshore renewable energy-dominated systems remains an open question, as well as the simultaneous analysis of e-fuels, e-chemicals, and e-materials export production. Using the LUT Energy System Transition Model, four scenarios were simulated to investigate the effects of wave power and e-product export production in hourly resolution. In addition to cost-optimal scenarios, exploratory wave-favoured scenarios are analysed as hypothetical policy counterfactuals, designed to assess the system-level implications of deliberately supporting wave power deployment in a country with exceptional wave energy resources. The results indicate that by 2050, wave power can provide a complement to onshore renewable energy, reducing total installed capacity by 9% and electricity storage needs, only leading to marginally increased costs compared to cost-optimal conditions. Wave power in some regions of Chile may have higher social acceptance, as it reduces land required near densely populated urban centres. Under export scenarios, e-products meeting 10% of fuel and chemical demand from the Americas, Europe, and East Asia plus up to 5% of global demand for steel and aluminium would require 71–78% of Chile’s exploitable renewable electricity potential (2375 GW). Chile could become a global leader in e-product exports, contributing to a post-fossil fuel economy. These findings offer valuable insights for energy planners, policymakers, and the energy modelling community.