From Impotence to Importance? Connecting Tarrant to the Trans-Tasman (Australia and New Zealand) Extreme Right: A Social Network Analysis

This study examines the structure and internal dynamics of the trans-Tasman (Australia and New Zealand) extreme right between 2010 and 2022 using Social Network Analysis (SNA). Drawing on two unique datasets, it maps how the network evolved through interpersonal and organisational connections, and in response to both internal dynamics and external events, across three key timeframes. It identifies the actors occupying central (vanguard) positions and their capacity to shape ideological flow across the network. The analysis reveals a decentralised, but connected, movement characterised by persistent ideological fragmentation, factional competition, and shifting patterns of influence. Positioning Brenton Tarrant within this network, the study finds that although he occupied a peripheral but connected role with limited capacity to influence broader movement strategy prior to 2019, he was power-adjacent and possessed knowledge of the mechanisms of ideological dissemination and instruction within the network. However, relationship breakdown and factional infighting in the period 2017–2018 reduced Tarrant’s ability to connect to the broader network and disseminate ideas through interpersonal channels. This study suggests that when pathways to influence within fragmented extremist networks are restricted, violence may emerge as an alternative mechanism for asserting influence.