Economic Growth and Internal Migration Dynamics in Post‐Crisis America

ABSTRACT This paper examines how dynamic economic conditions shape internal migration flows across U.S. states in the post–Great Recession period. Using a dyadic panel of bilateral state‐to‐state migration flows from 2000 to 2018, we estimate gravity‐style models with dyad and year fixed effects, focusing on within‐pair variation in income growth and labor market conditions. This framework isolates how time‐varying economic shocks at origins and destinations influence migration responses, net of persistent spatial relationships. We find that origin economic dynamics are the most robust predictors of migration. Higher income growth at the origin is associated with increased bilateral flows, while higher origin unemployment reduces mobility. Destination income growth plays a more limited role overall but becomes a stronger and more precisely estimated pull factor in the post‐2010 period, indicating changes in migration responsiveness following the Great Recession. By contrast, environmental conditions and institutional quality exhibit weaker and less consistent effects once dynamic economic factors are accounted for. These results highlight the role of internal migration as a mechanism of regional adjustment to asymmetric economic shocks. More broadly, the findings underscore the importance of modeling migration as a dynamic, dyadic process driven by localized economic change rather than static regional characteristics.