A Physics-Informed Framework Linking Satellite AOD and Ambient Particulate Matter: A Pilot Study

Recently, numerous studies have exploited satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) to estimate near-surface particulate matter (PM) concentrations, with the aim of overcoming the limited spatial and temporal coverage of ground-based air quality monitoring networks. Despite significant progress, the relationship between AOD and PM remains highly uncertain, mainly due to the inadequate representation of local aerosol microphysical properties and of hygroscopic growth effects. In particular, satellite AOD is retrieved at ambient relative humidity, whereas standard PM measurements are performed under dry conditions. This study proposes a physics-informed, semi-empirical approach that overcomes these limitations by directly relating satellite AOD to PM measured at ambient humidity. Co-located measurements, from a Light Optical Aerosol Counter (LOAC) in the urban area of Bologna (Po Valley, Italy) during 2023, are used. This study is designed as a pilot application to evaluate the physical consistency of the proposed framework under well-characterised observational conditions, including spatial co-location, temporal matching to satellite overpasses, and exclusion of precipitation and desert dust events. The LOAC provides particle number size distribution and particle-type classification, which are used to estimate key aerosol properties controlling the AOD–PM theoretical relationship, including the Effective Radius, Extinction Efficiency, and aerosol Mass Density. These quantities, together with Mixing Layer Height, are combined within a theoretical framework linking PM and AOD, allowing for the derivation of a physically based scaling coefficient without relying on empirical hygroscopic growth corrections. The results show that using ambient PM2.5 alone already yields a moderate linear correlation with AOD normalized by Mixing Layer Height (Pearson’s R = 0.56) whereas no meaningful correlation is found when using standard dry PM2.5. When aerosol microphysical properties derived from LOAC measurements are incorporated, the correlation substantially improves (R = 0.76), with regression slopes close to unity and reduced errors, independently of the season. These results demonstrate that explicitly accounting for aerosol size and optical properties enhances the physical consistency and robustness of satellite-based PM estimates. The proposed framework also provides a pathway to indirectly derive aerosol hygroscopic growth factors by coupling ambient PM estimates from satellite observations with conventional dry PM measurements. This opens new perspectives for characterizing aerosol–humidity interactions from space and for improving air quality monitoring in regions lacking of dense in situ networks.