The Temporal Structure of Nationalist Movements in the World-System: Polynomial Regression Analysis as a Post-Positivist Heuristic Tool

This article examines the temporal structure of state-seeking nationalist mobilization in the modern world-system. Scholars of nationalism have long debated whether nationalism expands with modernization, declines after reaching a historical peak, recurs in successive waves, or remains contingent on specific political conjunctures. Yet these competing temporal assumptions are rarely examined systematically. This article introduces polynomial regression analysis as a post-positivist heuristic method for making such assumptions visible and comparable. Rather than treating polynomial regression as a device for mechanically confirming or falsifying theories, it uses it as a diagnostic tool that clarifies how different interpretations become plausible under different specifications of time, geography, and periodization. Using the State-Seeking Nationalist Movements dataset, which tracks mobilization by stateless nations from 1492 to 2013, the article compares linear, quadratic, and cubic specifications across historical and geographical scopes. The findings show that linear, arc-shaped, and cyclical interpretations each capture partial dimensions of the historical trajectory. In the Global North after 1800, state-seeking nationalism appears as a secular increase, postwar decline, and renewed wave depending on model specification. At the world-systemic level, however, the inclusion of the Global South shifts the timing and form of decline.