Severe droughts in Senegal are linked to increased family reunification at migration destinations in Europe

Research increasingly links climate shocks to cross-border mobility. Migration scholars often frame migration as a temporary, household-level decision to diversify economic risks. It is unclear whether this holds when risks become persistent and intensifying, as with climate change. Focusing on Europe-bound migration from Senegal, we combine individual-level immigration records with granular weather data to understand whether climatic stress increases the likelihood of family reunification at the destination, a potential signal for permanent settlement. Findings indicate that severe drought is associated with increased reunification. Social connections, legal documentation, household wealth, and agricultural involvement moderate the drought-reunification association. Gender also relates to reunification patterns. Married women are less likely to follow their spouses, potentially due to their traditional family roles, which may eventually increase their exposure to climate-related risks. These results suggest that persistent environmental stress may transform the nature of international migration from Africa, with implications for long-term demographic change. The study combines Senegal migration and weather data and find severe droughts in origin are linked to increased family reunification at destinations in Europe, suggesting extreme weather may shift migration towards a more permanent settlement strategy.