Cropping patterns choice and the implications on profitability and risk of the vegetable farming

Abstract This study examines the factors influencing farmers’ cropping pattern choices and evaluates how these patterns affect profitability and risk in vegetable farming within an upper watershed context. Data were collected from 277 vegetable-farming households across Bandung and West Bandung Regencies, covering 380 plots, or 579 plots–season combinations. A Multinomial Logit (MNL) model was chosen in this study for its ability to estimate how various explanatory variables influence the likelihood of selecting a specific cropping pattern (monoculture, polyculture, and mixed systems), in line with the study’s objective to identify key determinants of farmers’ crop diversification decisions. Complementary to this, a cost–benefit analysis assessed the economic performance of each pattern, while risk–profit mapping illustrated trade-offs across commodities. The findings reveal that monoculture dominated (50.8%), followed by polyculture (39.5%) and mixed systems (9.7%). Cropping decisions were significantly influenced by farmer characteristics (age, education), household labour availability, landholding size and status, plot slope, cropping intensity, risk exposure, and seasonal factors. Polyculture was associated with significantly higher net profits per hectare compared to monoculture. Commodities such as chilli, broccoli, and shallot offered high returns but also carried higher risk. Farmers adopted polyculture not only to manage risk but also to enhance income stability and cash flow. These results underscore the importance of aligning profitability and risk profiles to inform strategic cropping decisions. Policymakers are encouraged to support diversification through improved market access, targeted training for farmers and extension services, investing in water management infrastructure, and promoting access to risk management tools.