Fishery Sustainability and Climate Change Shocks in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: Insights from a Panel VAR Model

Fishery production in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region faces growing threats from overfishing, climate change, marine pollution, and habitat degradation, which reduce stock regeneration and ecosystem stability. Inadequate management systems and limited technological adoption further constrain productivity, posing risks to food security and economic stability. This study examines the dynamic impact of climate change shocks on fishery sustainability in GCC countries, using the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) framework to examine both short- and long-run interactions between climate variables and fishery production. The study observed a long-run cointegration between total fisheries production and climate variables. Results reveal strong dynamic linkages, with temperature and carbon emissions exhibiting stable long-term trends and relatively low forecast errors. In contrast, precipitation and fishery output show higher volatility and greater sensitivity to short-term shocks. Temperature shocks have a significant negative effect on fishery production, highlighting the need for climate adaptation policies that protect marine ecosystems, enhance monitoring, and promote sustainable fishing practices. The findings highlight the importance of considering climate variability and adaptive strategies to ensure sustainable fisheries in the region. The novelty of this study is applying a dynamic PVAR approach to GCC fisheries, accounting for short-run and long-run climate impacts and providing region-specific policy-relevant insights that address sustainability under climate variability.