Comparing Crop Areas, GHG Emissions and Protein Production from Different Land Use Systems in Canada from 1990 to 2023

This paper presents industry-specific time series for GHG emissions, land use, and complete protein production in Canada from 1990 to 2023. This analysis relies on an updated version of the Unified Livestock Industry and Crop Emissions Estimation System (ULICEES). Whereas ULICEES was developed to compare Canada’s livestock industries based on 2001 and 2006 Agricultural Census data, ULICEES-T relies mainly on national agricultural Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) to compare all Canadian agronomic land uses within the farm gate. The national CH4 and N2O emissions from all livestock are re-aggregated into livestock-specific crop complexes. Fossil CO2 emissions are simulated using the Farm Fieldwork and Fossil Fuel Energy and Emissions (F4E2) model. Between 2005 and 2020, crop areas that supported livestock decreased from 14 to 10 Mha, whereas in Western Canada, the areas growing non-livestock feed crops increased from 20 to 25 Mha. Over the same 15-year interval, GHG emissions from crop areas not supporting livestock increased from 18 to 27 MtCO2e, while GHG emissions from livestock decreased from 51 MtCO2e in 2005 to 42 MtCO2e in 2020, a drop of 18%. Meanwhile, protein from all Canadian livestock decreased by only 12% over that interval. Reducing N2O emissions associated with N fertilizer and reduced beef consumption are the two best options for achieving a lower agricultural carbon footprint in Canada.