Digital Matrimonial Markets, Structural Mismatches, and Psychological Distress Among Never-Married Pakistanis Aged 25–45: A Mixed-Methods Test of the Mismatch Triad Model (Study Protocol v1.0)

This is the complete research manuscript (Version 2.0) for a mixed-methods study on delayed marriage and psychological distress among never-married Pakistanis aged 25-45. The study introduces and empirically validates the Mismatch Triad Model (MTM) – a novel composite framework comprising age mismatch, financial mismatch, and expectation mismatch. The research employed a concurrent mixed-methods design with: Quantitative component: Anonymous online survey (N = 421, 50.8% female) with a bilingual (English/Urdu) instrument Qualitative component: Thematic analysis of narrative responses (n = 89, 21.1%) Statistical analyses: Logistic regression, mediation (PROCESS Macro), moderation (Johnson-Neyman technique), and Pearson correlations Key findings: Psychological distress rates are alarmingly high: 47.7% probable depression (PHQ-2 ≥ 3), 38.7% probable anxiety (GAD-2 ≥ 3) The Mismatch Index significantly predicts marriage search failure (OR = 0.71, p = .001) Six digital matrimonial fraud patterns identified; legal vacuum (40.4%) predominates Fraud mediates 55.6% of the mismatch → anxiety pathway Social support buffers distress by 61% when high Pessimistic beliefs mediate 62% of mismatch → distress pathway Policy contribution: A National Marriage Facilitation Authority (NMFA) with five pillars is proposed, with estimated budget (PKR 1.0 b setup, PKR 2.3 b annual) and job creation projections (1,700-1,950 jobs). This upload contains: Complete manuscript with Abstract, Introduction, Literature Review, Methodology, Results, Discussion, and Conclusion Research questions (RQ1-RQ6) and hypotheses (H1-H6) All tables (1-8) and figures (1-9) as described The proposed NMFA policy framework with budget estimates Six digital matrimonial fraud factor taxonomy with prevalence rates Complete references in APA 7th edition STROBE checklist (Appendix D) Python data analysis pipeline (Appendix C) Variable codebook (Appendix F) Data availability statement (Appendix G) Ethical compliance: IRB approved. Pre-registered on Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20836998). Informed consent obtained from all participants. Data availability: Anonymized summary data available upon reasonable request. Target journal: BMC Psychiatry or BMC Psychology (Q1, Open Access). Author: Asma Sehrish, M.Sc. Psychology, Independent Researcher, Pakistan.ORCID: 0009-0007-9755-0242