Unraveling the Multi-Scale Spatial Patterns and Impact Factors of Traditional Villages: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach

Traditional Chinese villages are important carriers of rural heritage, collective memory, vernacular landscapes, and living cultural traditions. However, rapid urbanization, agricultural modernization, climate change, and tourism development have increasingly threatened their spatial integrity and cultural continuity, highlighting the need for evidence-based conservation and adaptive management. This study examines the spatial distribution patterns and associated factors of 8155 national-level traditional villages in China. An integrated spatial analytical framework was developed by combining kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, Geodetector, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The results show that: (1) traditional villages are unevenly distributed across China and form a distinct “three-core and multi-node” spatial pattern, with major high-density clusters concentrated in several cross-provincial regions and secondary clusters distributed in other heritage-rich areas; (2) the spatial differentiation of traditional village density is statistically associated with natural, cultural, and socioeconomic factors, among which temperature and precipitation show the strongest explanatory power, while cultural endowment, ecological quality, and socioeconomic variables show more context-dependent associations; and (3) compared with OLS and conventional GWR, MGWR improves model performance by capturing spatially heterogeneous and scale-dependent relationships through variable-specific bandwidths. These findings provide national-scale empirical evidence for differentiated conservation planning and support the integration of traditional village protection with rural revitalization, cultural heritage conservation, and sustainable regional development.