The Nordic States and the Arctic: contextually induced role change in a new geopolitical context

This article investigates how the small liberal Nordic states – Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden – have adapted their foreign and security policy roles in the Arctic in response to a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. Departing from the concept of contextually induced role change, we trace the evolution of Nordic national role conceptions before and after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a turning point that marked the transition from a liberal, rules-based order to intensified great power competition. Prior to 2022, the Nordic states balanced multilateral cooperation and national interests, acting as facilitators of cooperation in the Arctic while also pursuing distinct national roles. The post-2022 context, however, has seen a convergence of Nordic Arctic policies, with a pronounced shift towards prioritising military security, particularly through NATO. The analysis demonstrates that the increasingly hostile Arctic environment has constrained the agency of small states, compelling the Nordics to adopt new roles focused on security provision, while multilateral strategies have become less viable. This contextually induced role change underscores the challenges faced by small liberal states in navigating a more competitive and unpredictable Arctic and highlights the importance of both structural conditions and agency in shaping foreign policy roles.