Assessing the Impact of GST 2.0 on the Dairy Sector and Women’s Empowerment in Karnataka: A Secondary Data Analysis

The 56th GST Council of India, in its landmark September 2025 meeting, approved sweeping tax rationalisations collectively referred to as GST 2.0, bringing most dairy products under a nil or 5% rate structure. This study critically evaluates the structural and gender-specific impact of this reform on Karnataka’s dairy sector through secondary data analysis. Karnataka, which recorded India’s highest milk production growth rate of 8.76% in 2022-23 and hosts 4,734 Women’s Dairy Cooperative Societies (DCS) under the Karnataka Milk Federation (KMF), represents a uniquely significant context for this inquiry. Secondary data are synthesised from KMF Annual Reports, the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries (DAHD), NABARD field surveys, the National Statistical Office’s Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES 2022–23), and related governmental sources covering the period 2017-18 to 2024-25. Quantitative analyses encompassing Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) computation, bivariate OLS regression, and Pearson product-moment correlation are applied to examine linkages between Women’s DCS growth, income trajectories, financial inclusion, and cooperative governance indicators. Results reveal that GST 2.0 is projected to generate cumulative household savings of ₹17,800 per annum. Secondary panel regressions confirm a highly significant positive relationship between Women’s DCS count and average annual income (R² = 0.989) and between income and the Financial Inclusion Index (R² = 0.994). Pearson correlations across all cooperative performance and empowerment indicators are uniformly high (r = 0.990–0.999, p < 0.01), confirming a coherent, mutually reinforcing system of dairy development and women’s economic agency in Karnataka.