Research on the Construction of Pilot in Ningbo Pilotage During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

Pilotage is a critical safeguard for navigational safety, port efficiency, and the orderly operation of maritime logistics systems. For large hub ports, scientific planning of pilot workforce size and structure is essential to balancing service quality, safety requirements, and long-term port development. Focusing on Ningbo Pilotage during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, this study develops a forecasting and planning framework for pilot capacity construction by integrating port business growth, workforce allocation, and safety redundancy considerations. To improve the reliability of the empirical analysis, the study addresses multicollinearity among explanatory variables by introducing ridge regression and a reduced diagnostic model. In addition, a multi-scenario forecasting framework is incorporated to capture potential disturbances arising from pandemic-like shocks, extreme weather, policy adjustments, and fluctuations in the shipping market. Sensitivity analysis is further conducted with respect to workload quotas and the safety redundancy coefficient. he results indicate that the number of pilotage trips in Ningbo is expected to reach about 41,900 in 2030 under the baseline scenario. Correspondingly, Ningbo Pilotage will need approximately 222 certified pilots and 62 assistant or trainee pilots, implying a certified-pilot shortage of about 58 relative to 2025. Compared with the original specification, the revised model provides more robust and interpretable estimates for strategic planning. Based on the forecasting results, this paper proposes phased and actionable recommendations for pilot recruitment, training, rank-based structural optimization, and echelon construction. The study contributes to pilotage workforce planning under uncertainty and offers practical implications for major ports seeking to enhance resilience and governance capacity.