Climate change and security in Somalia evidence from a fragile and climate vulnerable state

Climate change has increasingly emerged as a critical driver of insecurity in fragile and conflict-affected states, particularly in regions where environmental stress intersects with weak governance and socio-economic vulnerabilities. Somalia is among the countries most exposed to climate-related risks due to its arid climate, heavy reliance on pastoral and rain-fed agricultural livelihoods, and prolonged political instability. This study examines the nexus between climate change and security dynamics in Somalia by analyzing how environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and climate-induced displacement interact with governance challenges and conflict dynamics. A narrative literature review approach was employed, drawing on 85 relevant publications identified through academic databases, institutional reports, and policy documents from organizations such as the IPCC, FAO, World Bank, and UN agencies. Following the application of inclusion criteria, approximately 42 key sources were critically analyzed. The findings indicate that recurrent droughts, floods, and land degradation have intensified food and water insecurity, disrupted pastoral livelihoods, and contributed to increased internal displacement and resource-based conflicts in several regions of Somalia. Environmental stressors are further amplified by weak institutional capacity, limited climate finance absorption, and fragmented policy implementation. Although Somalia has developed national frameworks such as the National Climate Change Policy and the National Adaptation Plan, their effectiveness remains constrained by governance challenges and security limitations. The study concludes that climate change functions as a threat multiplier that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities and undermines long-term stability. Addressing this climate–security nexus requires integrated strategies that combine climate adaptation, peacebuilding, sustainable resource management, and strengthened local governance to enhance resilience and support sustainable development in Somalia.