An Empirical Analysis of the Causal Relationship between R&D Expenditures and Exports in Türkiye and Selected EU Countries

In today’s global economic environment, where competition is becoming increasingly intense, countries’ export performance is closely associated with their level of competitiveness. In this context, research and development (R&D) activities play a critical role in creating and sustaining competitive advantage. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between R&D expenditures and exports for 20 European Union (EU) member states and Türkiye, an EU candidate country, using annual data covering the period 1996–2022. In the empirical analysis, GDP per capita, the official exchange rate, and trade openness are included as control variables. The dynamic interactions among the variables are investigated within a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) framework, and the direction of causality is assessed using panel Granger causality tests. The empirical findings reveal a unidirectional causal relationship running from R&D expenditures to exports after controlling for economic growth, exchange rates, and trade openness. These results suggest that R&D activities constitute an important determinant of export performance and contribute to strengthening international competitiveness.