Modeling the Resilience of Agricultural Intermodal Logistics in Kazakhstan Under Dynamic Export Demand and Infrastructure Constraints

Background: Agricultural logistics in Kazakhstan is critical for export-oriented supply chains, but its resilience is limited by infrastructure constraints, fluctuating export demand, and insufficient coordination between market and logistics processes. Methods: This study develops a conceptual multi-level model of the agricultural logistics system and a hybrid simulation model combining system dynamics and discrete-event simulation to analyze intermodal transportation under demand and capacity constraints. The model integrates demand formation, storage, transport, and export operations, as well as feedback mechanisms between fulfilled demand, repeat orders, and logistics performance. The model is implemented in AnyLogic 8.9. Results: The conceptual model structures the interaction of key participants, logistics facilities, and infrastructure levels within Kazakhstan’s agricultural logistics system. Simulation experiments reproduce cyclic logistics behavior and show that reduced logistics capacity increases the demand gap and system pressure, while stronger market signals intensify demand and infrastructure load. The results confirm that resilience depends on the balance between demand activation, logistics capacity, and replenishment policy. Conclusions: The proposed approach provides a tool for analyzing the resilience of agricultural intermodal logistics in Kazakhstan and supports scenario-based evaluation of infrastructure and market factors. The novelty lies in combining a conceptual multi-level logistics model with hybrid simulation of demand and logistics flows.