When and Why Beliefs About the Causes of a Policy Problem Predict Policy Support

The relationship between beliefs about the causes of a policy-relevant issue (causal beliefs) and attitudes towards that policy (policy support) is complicated, with contradictory empirical results. The current research offers an explanation for this: causal beliefs only predict policy support when they are specific and correspond with the policy. We test this across six studies ( N = 10,728; quota-representative samples of U.K. and US populations) within two policy domains (obesity and alcohol). In study 1, we test whether specific-corresponding beliefs are stronger correlates of policy support than other causal beliefs. In studies 2 and 4, we test whether communicating specific-corresponding causal evidence can increase policy support. In studies 3 and 4, we identify and confirm the psychological mechanism: perceived policy effectiveness. Study 5 involves a meta-analysis of the experimental studies. This provides support for our theory: specific-corresponding causal beliefs affect policy support, but general and non-corresponding causal beliefs do not.