Intercity inequality in carbon emission reductions from vehicle electrification in China

Abstract The rapid expansion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) offers substantial potential for reducing nationwide carbon emissions, yet benefits vary across cities due to differing PEV adoption trajectories and spatial disconnects between vehicle use and power-plant emissions. Leveraging over 245 million vehicle registration records, we quantify PEV-related fuel-cycle carbon transfers across 285 Chinese cities. Here we show that economically developed cities transferred 41.8% of their PEV-related emissions to less developed cities in 2020, causing per-PEV emissions in the latter exceeding those of non-PEVs by 16.9%–52.0%. This outsourced carbon burden is projected to substantially increase climate mitigation costs for recipient cities. Furthermore, such intercity inequality in emission reductions is projected to remain elevated through 2030 due to growing disparities in PEV stocks across cities, before declining as the grid decarbonizes. Our findings highlight the importance of tailored, city-level decarbonization policies to promote an equitable and effective transition toward vehicle electrification.