Carbon lock-in in Algeria’s LNG strategy: Institutional and market constraints in a transitioning energy landscape

Algeria, Africa’s leading natural gas exporter, faces mounting pressure to reconcile gas-led growth with global decarbonization demands. This study applies carbon lock-in theory, particularly technological/institutional systems lock-in and geopolitical/economic lock-in, to Algeria’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, identifying structural inertia, regulatory opacity, and strategic overdependence on fossil-fuel exports. The analysis framework integrates domestic demand growth, aging infrastructure, and geopolitical positioning, while employing SWOT, Porter’s Five Forces, and PESTEL analyses to diagnose systemic constraints, transition opportunities, and strategic pathways to dismantle Algeria’s carbon lock-in. Trends from 1990 to 2025, with projections to 2030, reveal Algeria’s strengths, resilient upstream basins, expanding LNG capacity, and flexible trading, alongside vulnerabilities such as delayed project execution, subsidized tariffs, and limited diversification. Benchmarking against Egypt, Nigeria, Qatar, Mozambique, and Senegal shows Algeria’s competitiveness hinges on six strategic levers: upstream diversification, demand rationalization, LNG modernization, renewable scale-up, hydrogen development, and institutional reform. Findings indicate that without proactive reservoir management, pricing reform, and governance modernization, Algeria risks a decline in output and regional marginalization. Policy recommendations emphasize enforcing the 2019 Hydrocarbons Law, upgrading infrastructure, and empowering transition institutions, while initiatives such as Solar 1000 and the hydrogen roadmap highlight pathways to diversify energy exports and reduce dependence on gas-to-power. The study concludes that Algeria must integrate its gas strategy with a credible energy transition plan to sustain competitiveness.