Vignette Experiments Can Replicate Actual Behavioral Intent and Partly Actual Behavior: Panel Evidence on Environmental Migration from Bangladesh

Abstract Can survey experiments replicate real-world behavioral intent and behavior? I study a population in rural Bangladesh ( N ∼ 1600) along the banks of the Jamuna River, at risk of riverbank erosion and flooding. I compare their responses to questions about hypothetical movement behavior in vignette-experimental natural disaster scenarios (pre-monsoon, May–June 2021) with their migration intentions and actual migration 2–6 months later, following quasi-experimental real-world exposure. My results show that hypothetical as well as actual affectedness and risk shape migration intent and behavior in structurally similar ways, indicating sign-generalization over both treatments and outcomes. However, the vignette experiment approximates actual behavioral intent more closely than behavior, suggesting that real-world intention–behavior gaps can complicate external validity. Given a slim evidence base for generalizability over treatments and outcomes, this study contributes a crucial comparison from a rarely studied developing-country context on what we can learn from survey experiments.