Fertility challenges in China: lower fertility willingness in the context of evolving feminism debates on microblog

Low fertility rate has become a critical challenge globally, yet the exact underlying mechanisms remain scarcely understood, particularly regarding the specific mechanisms and triggering principles of social media in shaping fertility intentions. This study investigates these dynamics by analyzing 43,377 fertility-related comments on Microblog from 2023 to 2024, utilizing machine learning for data classification. Through a Process Chain Mediation Model and a Time Series approach, we explore how fertility discourse intersects with broader societal issues. Our findings reveal that fertility discussions are associated with increased discussion of feminist issues and correlated with rising anti-feminist discourse, with fertility topics becoming a contested space for gender conflict. Exposure to radical feminist views in the online opinion climate may strengthen gender divisions and fertility-related concerns, which could be linked to reproductive decisions that are not fully rationally evaluated. Such consequences, to some extent, go against the original intention of feminism to empower women and enhance their well-being. This study provides new insights into understanding the complex interactions between social media, gender politics, and demographic trends.